Some people are speculating that Tesla could reveal a new car called the Model D on October 9th.
First, I think it would be a good idea for Tesla to release a Coupe (based on the Model S platform) sometime after the Model X and before Model 3, since it would allow them to continue their quarter-over-quarter sales growth into Model 3 production. The Coupe model could also feature a convertible option as well.
However, I think it's too early for Tesla to release a new model car as they are still struggling to ramp production on the Model S and want to execute the Model X with precision.
I also did some trademark research and Tesla doesn't have "Model D" registered as a trademark (they have Model 3 and Model Y registered). So, I think people are jumping the gun hoping for a new car to be announced on October 9th. My best bet is for a dual-motor Model S.
Dougherty & Co note
Andrea James (Dougherty & Co) released a note this week as a Q3 preview (Q3 earnings will be held on the first week of November). No media picked up on this note so I don't have a link to share, but I'll share some notable parts of it here.
"Tesla's biggest mistake thus far as a company has been to massively underestimate demand for the Model S, thus requiring a factory reconfiguration in July and August. The final assembly shutdown may cause TSLA to miss its Q3 production targets, but sets a path for gross margin expansion and significant operating leverage in 2015. We are lowering our 2014 estimates, while raising 2015."
"So far, Tesla has only discussed its production run rates, not its actual factory capacity. Tesla has communicated that it would end 2014 at a little more than 1,000 units produced per week and that by the end of 2015, production would be just over 2,000 units per week. Tesla has not disclosed capacity, though we think it is reasonable to assume that capacity may be even twice the production run-rate exit of 2015. In other words, the new final assembly line may be able to produce 4,000 units per week, or 200,000 units per year."
"We have a buy rating and a $325 price target on Tesla Motors shares. We believe that Tesla can reasonably generate about $19 in non-GAAP EPS in 2020, (excluding the impact of leasing accounting but including share dilution.) A 30x multiple on 2020 earnings returns a $570 stock, which becomes $325 after discounting it back six years at a 10% discount rate."