Sources familiar with Tesla’s North American sales confirmed that Tesla recently reached just over 140,000 cars delivered in the US. That’s mainly Model S and Model X vehicles – with a few Model 3 vehicles. It means that Tesla buyers currently still have access to over 50,000 full tax credits before the phase-out period starts, which is higher than previous estimates... Instead, we expect 15,000 to 25,000 available federal tax credits to slip into Q1 2018. It means that they could hit the threshold during the first quarter or Tesla could (and should) time its 200,000th delivery right after the end of the first quarter since the way the phase-out period is set up, buyers still have access to the full credit for the current quarter and another full quarter – meaning they would still have access to the $7,500 credit in Q2 2018 and Q3 2018. After that, the tax credit is reduced by 50% for 6 months and then another 50% for another 6 months before being completely phased out.