TSLA dropped more than 60 points this week (as of Thursday) yet the fundamentals of Tesla remain as strong as ever. On Monday, Goldman Sachs released a note disappointed with Tesla's quarterly delivery numbers. Later on in the week, the Guardian wrote a note about harassment in Tesla's factory, and also the IIHS gave the Model S only an "acceptable" in the small overlap test.
However, on the brighter side, the Model 3 remains on track to start production this month so it should be an exciting time for Tesla investors. The next few years we will see the Model 3 likely shake up the auto industry and auto makers scramble to try to compete with the Model 3's three advantages: 1) better performance, 2) better economy due to electric drivetrain, and 3) autopilot/autonomous driving.
For those who hold TSLA and need a mood booster after a week like this, check out Gene Munster's video linked above.
Tesla delivered just over 22,000 vehicles in Q2, of which just over 12,000 were Model S and just over 10,000 were Model X. This represents a 53% increase over Q2 2016. Total vehicle deliveries in the first half of 2017 were approximately 47,100. The major factor affecting Tesla's Q2 deliveries was a severe production shortfall of 100 kWh battery packs, which are made using new technologies on new production lines. The technology challenge grows exponentially with energy density. Until early June, production averaged about 40% below demand. Once this was resolved, June orders and deliveries were strong, ranking as one of the best in Tesla history. Provided global economic conditions do not worsen considerably, we are confident that combined deliveries of Model S and Model X in the second half of 2017 will likely exceed deliveries in the first half of 2017.
It's somewhat confusing that Tesla is saying they had a severe production shortfall of the 100 kWh battery packs due to new technologies on new production lines. It appears they don't want to share more details than that so we are left to speculate. Perhaps the production of the 100 kWh battery packs are more challenging due to a more advanced cooling system. Also, I wonder if Tesla has changed the cell composition of the 18650 cells (giving priority to 100 kWh packs) and they have been short of supply until last month.